HomeMy WebLinkAboutResolution - 3423 - Agreement - Kurth & Company Inc - Air Service Analysis, LIA - 07_26_1990Resolution #-3423
July 26, 1990
Item #21
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RESOLUTION
BE IT RESOLVED BY THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF LUBBOCK:
THAT the Mayor of the City of Lubbock BE and is hereby authorized and
directed to execute for and on behalf of the City of Lubbock an Agreement
for Economic and Aviation Consulting Services with Kurth & Company, Inc.,
attached herewith, which shall be spread upon the minutes of the Council and
as spread upon the minutes of this Council shall constitute and be a part of
this Resolution as if fully copied herein in detail.
Passed by the City Council this 26th day of
ATTEST:
, clty ,)ecretary
APPROVED AS TO CONTENT:
X" 147--t�
ern E."-Case, Director of Aviation
APPROVED AS TO FORM:
Harold Willard, Assistant City
Attorney
July , 1990.
B. C. McMIN , MAYOR
Resolution #3423
�9 �_ 3
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THE STATE OF TEXAS
COUNTY OF LUBBOCK
AGREEMENT FOR ECONOMIC AND AVIATION
CONSULTING SERVICES
THIS AGREEMENT is made and entered into this 26th day
of July , 1990, by and between the City of
Lubbock, Texas, a home rule municipality located in Lubbock
County, Texas, hereinafter referred to as "Client," and Kurth &
Company, Inc. 4400 MacArthur Blvd., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20007
hereinafter referred to as "KCInc."
WITNESSETH:
THAT for and in consideration of the sums hereinafter stated
to be paid by Client, KCInc agrees to provide economic and avia-
tion consulting services as agreed upon between the parties and
pursuant to ATTACHMENT 1, incorporated herein by reference and
made a part of this Agreement.
I
Client agrees to pay KCInc for services rendered at the
hourly rates set forth in ATTACHMENT 2, incorporated herein by
reference and made a part of this Agreement. These hourly rates
may be adjusted on November 1 of each year to reflect changes in
the Consumer Price Index published by the Bureau of Labor Statis-
tics.
II
Client agrees to reimburse KCInc for all long distance tele-
phone, telegraph, telex, local messenger service, inter -city
express deliveries, photocopies, travel (airline ticket, hotel
accommodations, meals, rental cars, etc.) postage, computer time
and similar out-of-pocket expenses reasonably incurred by KCInc
in providing the aviation and consulting services herein
described.
III
The total cost to Client for the services of KCInc herein
described, including all expenses subject to reimbursement, shall
not exceed Twenty Thousand and No/100 Dollars ($20,000). KCInc
shall send Client monthly statements which indicate the hours
spent by each class of employee performing the services herein
described and the expenses incurred performing such services.
All such statements shall be paid within thirty (30) days of the
date received by Client, or Client must notify KCInc in writing
of any amounts improperly billed to Client.
IV
Either Client or KCInc may terminate this Agreement by noti-
fying the other party of intent to so terminate in writing and,
in that event, unless otherwise agreed, KCInc agrees to give
Client all work performed to the date notification is received
and Client agrees to pay KCInc for services rendered and reason-
able expenses incurred to such date.
u
KCInc is, and at all times during the performance of this
Agreement shall remain, an independent contractor, with full,
complete and exclusive power and authority to direct, supervise
and control its own employees and determine the method for
performance of the services to be rendered under this Agreement;
and any rights Client may have hereunder are not intended and
shall not at any time change or affect the status of KCInc as an
independent contractor.
VI
KCInc agrees that all services herein described shall be
performed in a professionally competent and workmanlike manner
and any products of whatsoever kind created during the perfor-
mance of such services shall become and remain the property of
Client and may be subsequently used or disposed of as Client sees
fit.
VII
This Agreement is made in and shall be construed in accor-
dance with the laws of the State of Texas.
VIII
This Agreement shall be binding upon and inure to the bene-
fit of the successors and assigns of both Client and KCInc.
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IN WITNESS WHEREOF, the parties to these presents have
executed this Agreement in the year and day first above written.
CITY OF LUBBOCK, TEXAS
C
BY:♦ r
.C. MCMINN, M9YOR
ATTEST:
KURTH & COMPANY, INC.
BY: (2i' "'/
CHARLES B. KURTH, PRESIDENT
ATTEST:
�r
i
Ranet e Boyd, City Secre ar
APPROVED AS TO CONTENT:
Bern E. Case, Director of Aviation
APPROVED AS TO FORM:
arold Willard, Assista t City Attorney
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ATTACHMENT 1
Page 1 of 6
vI. scope of Work
A. Domestic
1. Introduction
In today's highly competitive and cost-conscious
airline environment, carrier managements simply do not have
either the time or the staff resources to study all new market
opportunities in detail. The bulk of their planning time is
devoted to protecting existing market/revenue positions and to
reacting to other carriers' intrusions.
As a result, the two-phase RCinc air service improvement program
is designed to raise the priority of its clients' air service
needs within the carriers' planning process by providing carriers
with complete, airline in-house planning department quality, air
service studies (Phase I) and business plans (Phase II).
RCInc's proven strategic planning and forecasting experience,
which have led to the air service improvement successes of its
clients, have been developed over 14 years and constantly refined
to address the current and future economic realities of the
ever -changing commercial air transportation business. In
today's deregulated environment, commercial air transportation is
truly a business in every sense of the term. Its breadth of
real -world experience, its quality personnel and its lack of
prolonged ties to the bygone era of regulation position RCinc
particularly well to produce tangible results for its clients in
this real -world business environment.
In the broadest sense, RCInc's analytical program can address as
needed all components of the airport/airline economic equation.
First, historic and forecast socioeconomic data are analyzed to
determine the historic and future strength of the airport's
demand base.
Then, using proven techniques accepted by airline managements,
passenger forecasts address, as required, commuter, regional and
long haul demand; turboprop and jet demand; passenger and cargo
demand; regular and lower fare demand; domestic and international
demand; local and through passenger demand.
The results of this demand analysis, including operating statis-
tics such as passengers, RPMs, ASMs, load factors and departures
then are used in conjunction with RCInc's strategic planning ex-
pertise to identify the candidate carriers most likely to benefit
from the financial opportunities available at LBB.
The demand forecast results then are tested for financial sound-
ness using the individual candidate carriers' actual fare struc-
tures and detailed costs by aircraft type. Unit costing is based
t
ATTACF MENT 1
Page 2 of 6
on the CAB's detailed Version Six, Updated methodology which
among other things, accounts accurately for costs that vary by
length of aircraft nonstop flight distance and passenger journey.
Profitability is determined using traditional airline/financial
community measures including return on investment, margins on
revenue and expenses and operating and breakeven load factors.
Based on its air service improvement programs successes on behalf
of other communities, RCInc recommends its patented two -phased
approach for the LBB program.
2. Phase I
Phase I will entail an air service study covering
(1) historic and forecast socioeconomic data, (2) historic serv-
ice in major markets, (3) historic traffic in major markets and
(4) historic load factors in markets receiving nonstop service.
The primary purpose of the study is to determine whether new
service opportunities are available at LBB and, if so, which
carrier(s) is best suited to meet the identified service needs
(Attachment 1).
Based on the items 1-4 information, RCInc will determine whether
LBB has deficiently served markets and, if so, the number of ad-
ditional roundtrips required to cure such deficiencies. Then,
using its proven strategic planning abilities, it will identify
candidate carriers to approach with a Phase II air service
proposal business plan.
As requested by LBB, the Phase I study also will include (1) a
determination of the causes of growth in air service at LBB in
the past three or four years, (2) a comparison of the air service
experience of LBB with cities of similar demographics, (3) a
breakout of LBB passenger traffic in the top 25 markets with per-
centage distribution, (4) a survey of incumbent and logical
regional airline planning officials to determine the factors,
other than passenger loads, which influence service decisions and
(5) an evaluation LBB's service quality in comparison with other
airports competitive in transferring passengers.
Item 1, causes of growth, will be determined by analysis of
changes in major markets' traffic as compared to changes in serv-
ice and underlying LBB socioeconomic indicators. Item 2 com-
parisons will be made in terms of the type of service (jet vs
turboprop), the number of flights offered and the number of
markets served, for selected cities of similar demographics and
distance from hubs. In item 3, LBB traffic in the top 25 markets
will be collected for representative years, and percent breakdown
(distributions) and percent change will be calculated. In item
4, a survey of selected airline corporate officials will be con-
ducted to determine the factors (if any), other than passenger
ATTAMENT 1
Page 3 of 6
loads, which influence service decisions. Finally, in item 5,
Boeing company data will be used to identify cities comparable to
LBB in transfer passengers (35,000 annual). The identified
cities then will be compared to LBB in terms of the amount and
type of service available.
It is recognized throughout the industry by seasoned analysts
that the DOT passenger data are seriously flawed and thereby un-
derstate actual market passenger counts. Table 5 confirms that
this problem also exists with the LBB traffic data. DOT errors
in LBB'S top ten markets range from a low of a 2% understatement
in the ABQ market to an 8% understatement in the important Dallas
and San Antonio markets. For the top ten markets alone, the DOT
data understatement totals 6% or 50,000 annual passengers. This
passenger understatement can be even more severe in percentage
terms for international markets.
In order to base the study decisions on the most accurate market
information, and to provide the carriers with the best possible
data, KCInc strongly recommends that LBB rely on the Boeing data
for its traffic analysis.
3. Phase II
In Phase II, market service deficiencies
identified in Phase I are addressed through preparation and
presentation of carrier and service -specific business plans. The
plans will be geared ,to a combination of realistic, near -term
passenger demand, revenue and expense estimates and current air-
port facilities capabilities. First consideration will be given
to incumbent LBB carriers whenever practical and realistic. With
their local operations established, incumbents normally are able
to respond faster than non -incumbents to identified service
deficiencies.
With The Phase I results in hand, and after consultation with
LBB, KCInc will finalize the selection of primary and backup can-
didate carriers best -positioned to benefit from and thus respond
positively to a request for scheduled air service to deficiently
served markets.
In Phase II, KCInc will prepare a detailed,, airline planning
department type business-plan(s) for the new services. These
plans will be based on a specific aircraft type, a precise
schedule of flights by time of day, traffic and revenue
forecasts, and expense estimates based on the candidate carrier's
latest actual cost of operating the selected aircraft type.
These factors will be combined to produce complete business plans
including profitability, cash flow and operating and net margins.
ATTACHMENT
Page 4 of 6
The business plans will be sent to the senior planning management
of the target carrier(s) along with other LBB promotional
material as appropriate and a request fora face-to-face meeting.
If the initial efforts are successful, RCInc then will assist LBB
as requested in planning the inaugural flight and follow-on
promotional activity. If the primary candidate carrier(s)
decline for whatever reason to institute service, RCInc will
modify the business plan for backup carriers until success is
achieved. While no guarantees can be provided in today's deregu-
lated aviation industry environment, LBB should understand that
RCInc has never failed to attract new service to a community and
that the success rate on the first or second candidate carrier is
in the high 90% range.
Attachment 1 details the Phase I and II tasks and provides an ex-
ample of the results of the deficiencies analysis. Attachments 6
and 7 contain the Tables of Contents of recent KCInc air service
and business plan studies, respectively, and are offered to
provide concrete examples of KCInc work products.
B. International
While LBB does not yet generate enough international
traffic to attract nonstop or direct service, this traffic com-
ponent is important enough to the airlines (due to its high
ticket value) and major LBB businesses to warrant special, though
relatively brief, analytical attention. Importantly, attracting
international passengers also would strengthen LBB's domestic
services.
The international analysis will parallel the domestic study in
the traffic area and be included in the Phase I report. It will
show LBB passengers by major international market and for the
city total for selected years over the 1984-89 period. Growth
rates also will be calculated.
VII. Project Management, Schedule, Estimated Fees and References
A. Management
Mr. C. B. Kurth, President of KCInc, will be Project
Director. He will be aided by Mr. Suman, Project Manager -
Domestic, in charge of detailed data collection and analysis.
Messrs. Diamond and Kenneally and Ms. Wechsler will serve as
analysts supporting the project manager (Chart 1).
ATTACHMENT 1
Page 5 of 6
RCInc also offers a unique array of experienced personnel skills
to LBB. Specifically, the actual LBB experience of Messrs. Kurth
and Suman extending to 1974 assures a solid, current, hands-on
understanding of domestic and international markets, carriers and
service patterns.
Finally, Messrs. Diamond and Kenneally have substantial ex-
perience as Lead Analysts in numerous airport client domestic and
international studies.
Attachment 3 provides brief biographies of RCInc officials Kurth,
Suman and Keiter and resumes of the LBB study team. The
separately enclosed Corporate Capabilities Brochure provides
details on RCInc experience and resumes of all key professional
staff.
B. Estimated Fees
Based on recent, projects of similar scope, RCInc es-
timates that approximately 200 person -hours will be required for
the Phase I study. At its current weighted average hourly rate
of approximately $70, the professional fees cost of Phase I
report, including Executive Summary, will approximate $14,000.
Out-of-pocket costs, exclusive of out-of-town travel and per
diem, will approximate 10% of fees and printing of 10 copies has
been quoted at $250 for an average size document, for a total
Phase I cost of approximately $15,650.
The total Phase I costs for fees and out-of-pocket expenses will
not exceed $15,650.
Phase II business plans range from $3,000 to $7,500 depending on
the number of markets, daily flights and aircraft types involved.
More precise Phase II cost estimates can be provided after the
Phase I process of identifying the primary and backup candidate
carriers has been accomplished.
The carrier meetings/presentations will require one or two days
of principal time, or $1,000 to $2,000 in professional fees,
depending on carrier office location, plus travel and out-of-
pocket expenses.
Total Phases I and II costs, including study, business plan(s)
and one trip to Lubbock will not exceed $20,000.
-ATTACI3MI;11T 1
Page 6 of 6
C. Schedule
In terms of elapsed time, the Phase I Air Service Study
can be completed within approximately six to eight weeks of
authorization. KCInc will finish two major projects in April and
thus will have adequate resources to perform this project.
KCInc representatives are available to discuss this proposal at
your convenience. We thank you for the opportunity to propose on
this interesting and challenging project. KCInc looks forward
to the opportunity to work with LBB representatives on this in-
teresting and important project.
D. References
Attachment 5 contains references familiar with various
aspects of KCIncls experience and work program.
The following is a brief description of the work performed for
each reference:
Aaronson - domestic and international air service studies
and business plans for Baltimore -Washington International Airport
and for. the three major New York area airports (Newark, La Guar-
dia and Kennedy International.
Bell - domestic market air service studies and business
plans for Wichita.
Brantley - international market traffic study; traffic and
business plan analysis, including expert testimony, in a U.S. DOT
London route proceeding, all for Raleigh -Durham.
Cardinal - domestic market air service studies, travel
agency surveys and business plans for Pueblo.
Gillick - domestic and international market traffic and
business plan studies; traffic and business plan analysis, in-
cluding expert testimony, in U.S. DOT route proceedings involving
Australia and Japan, all for America West; off -airport rental
car study for Thrifty.
Ledoux - domestic market air service study, business plans,
travel agency survey and comparative market fare analysis for
Baton Rouge.
Ormsby - domestic and international air service studies and
business plans for Baltimore -Washington International Airport.
FEE SCHEDULE
Function
----------------
Principal
Senior Analyst
Junior Analysts
Analysts
Clerical
ATTACHMENT 2
Hourly
Rate
$125
$95 - $75
$65 - $55
$45 - $35
$35 - $25